本文以台南市南區自2001-2007年之法定貧窮戶為研究對象，分別探討法定貧窮戶在家戶與戶長個人上之靜態1窮、持續貧窮、跳脫貧窮、以及跳脫貧窮後再進入的風險率分析。迴歸方法以Cox比例風險模型苑型來預測脫離貧窮的風險率，並以生命表法估算出中位貧窮年數為2.38年。研究發現落入貧窮在戶長的風險比例模型上以戶長年齡、教育年數、健康狀態與有無工作最為貝著。亦即戶長年齡越高、受教育年數愈多，健康狀態較佳及戶長有工作者之法定貧窮戶較容易跳脫貧窮。而在家戶的風險比例模型上則以家戶有身心障礙人口為最顯著因子，如法定貧窮戶之家戶中有身心障礙人口時，則要跳脫貧窮是有顯著的困難. 因此在社會福利政策的議程上，建議政府對於法定貧窮戶能多方面的創造工作機會與就業輔導，以此增加就業機會，進而提高法定貧窮戶所得而脫離貧窮。並針對有身心障礙人口的法定貧窮戶能多以社會津貼補助。 This anicle is based on the statutory poor study ofobjects in the Southem District ofTainan City since 2001-2007;it is a discussion on the analysis ofstatutory poverty households respectively for families and head ofthe household in Persistent poverty, sustained poverty, out of poverty, as well as the risk rate (hazard ratio). The he Cox proportional hazard model is assumption that can predict the risk of poverty, and the life table method is allowed to estimate that the medium years in the poor are 2.38. The study found that the poverty get on the risk model of head ofthe household,especially on age, education, health status and occupation. That is, ifhead ofthe household is older, has more education, better health status, ora J.ob, he would get out of statutory poverty easlly. However, tnerisk model of families is remarkable for physical disabilities, so it is more difticult to be far away from the poverty ifthere is a member of family in this way. So in the social welfare policy agenda, it would be recommended that the ofticial Govemment should create nore opportunities and guidance of occupation for the statutory poverty households for increasing employment ppponunities and raising their incomes to get out of poverty, so as to oft`er more social allowance for Llte statutory poverty households ofphysical disabilities.
