Chia Nan University of Pharmacy & Science Institutional Repository:Item 310902800/25521
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 16937/19260 (88%)
Visitors : 7623969      Online Users : 75
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:

    Title: Order arrival time and quatity forecasting with ANFIS under hybrid MTS/MTO environment
    Authors: Kune-muh Tsai
    Mei-hui Chen
    Contributors: 化粧品應用與管理系
    Keywords: Make-to-order
    Hybrid MTS/MTO
    Date: 2010/07/04
    Issue Date: 2012-09-18 11:27:46 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: Sharing information on market, production capacity and inventory statuses is well known tohelp supply chain members reduce the inventory costs and mitigate the bullwhip effects.However, in practice, many manufacturers still have difficulties in obtaining market andinventory information from their customers due to the lack of trust, not major account, highinvestment cost, etc. When information sharing is not feasible, manufacturers can resort toforecasting to predict the plausible next order arrival time and quantity so that they can pre-produce to shorten order lead time without carrying excessive inventory.With hybrid MTS and MTO production systems, manufacturers can benefit by implementingpostponement to pre-purchase production parts and / or pre-produce MTS strategy based onthe forecasted order arrival time and quantity. In this study, we consider forecasting the nextorder arrival time and order quantity under the hybrid MTS and MTO production environmentwhen the manufacturer has no information sharing with his customers. Most forecastingsystems rely on complicated rules to enhance their accuracy; however, the rules are notsimple enough for decision makers to convert them into human intelligence to make areasonable good forecast. We adopt the adaptive neural-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) asthe fundamental inference system to infer the next order arrival time and order quantity aftertraining with previous order related information to obtain a fuzzy-inference-system (FIS). AsANFIS can predict the next order arrival time and quantity, manufacturers or suppliers areable to pre-purchase or pre-produce customers’ orders to reduce order lead times. Toprovide decision makers with tractable decision domains and inference rules, we furtherrestrict the levels of fuzzy decision variables to have small amount of fuzzy inference rules.By learning the simple rules provided by the ANFIS, decision makers can still make properpurchase / production decisions by observing the statuses of the supply chain without havingto perform the ANFIS.
    We experimented with sinusoidal market demand patterns and found that an ANFIS with 10x 10 rules can have MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) of 1% for order arrival time andquantity as well. By reducing the ANFIS to 3 x 5 rules, the ANFIS can still have MAPE of approximate 15%, which is accurate enough for decision makers to learn the 3 x 5 rules andmake decisions without relying on the ANFIS to achieve a reasonable good forecasting result.
    Appears in Collections:[Dept. of Cosmetic Science and institute of cosmetic science] Proceedings

    Files in This Item:

    There are no files associated with this item.

    All items in CNU IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback