近年來，政府大力推行觀光休閒加上週休二日的緣故，觀光需求及頻率大幅提昇。泡湯在台灣逐漸成為一股流行的風潮，民眾一窩風的熱愛泡湯，讓泡湯成為一種全民的休閒活動，如能善用溫泉資源，將具有觀光、遊憩、醫療保健及農業栽培等多元化的弁遄C然而，當業者競相投入發展溫泉產業之際，卻常忽略深入了解溫泉區自然因素與人為條件之優劣性的考量，而這些因素涉及之層面相當廣泛，因此，基於溫泉區是否能達到永續經營成敗的重要因素。
本研究以知本溫泉區為例，探討此區之遊客量成長趨勢、生態承載量及環境敏感區之評估。首先利用時間序列ARIMA模式(ARIMA; Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model)來推估知本溫泉區未來遊客量之成長，再擬合此區之生態承載量來推估未來之最適遊客量並分析與討論此區之環境敏感地。文中對台灣溫泉現況也一併分析。
研究結果顯示，知本溫泉區之未來遊客量呈現負成長的趨勢，推估到2013年的遊客量將到達35萬人次，而此區之發展限制因素主要是在交通承載量的部份，以此推估知本之最適生態承載量約為每日41,600-83,200人次，將可維持溫泉區之品質及生態環境的保護。 The tourism demand has significe increased du e to government policy and
two-days-off weekend in recent years. Therefor， hot spring has become increasingly popular in Taiwan. Making good use of hot spring resourves， hot spring will be provided with mulit-functions including tourism， amusement， medical treatment and agricultural cultivation.Nonetheless，the considerations of
hot spring natural factors and artificial influences have been neglected in the popular hot spring industry. The naturl and artificial factors have great influence on sustainable management of hot spring industry.
The research investigates the evaluations of the increase in tourists，ecological capacity and environmental sensitive areas in Chihpen.Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) is firstly employed to forecast the increase in tourist in the future.
The result indicated that the number of tourist will decrease in the future. The number of tourist will approximately reach 350,000 by 2013. The availability of trains portation was the main limitation for hot spring industry in Chihpen. Based on the estimation， the optimum range of ecological capacity will located between 41,600 and 83,200 person-time per day to sustain the quality of hot spring and the protection of ecological environment in Chihpen.
