以多元迴歸分析模式建立台灣都會區及非都會區垃圾發熱量經驗公式之研究

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Title:	以多元迴歸分析模式建立台灣都會區及非都會區垃圾發熱量經驗公式之研究 Establishing the Empirical Equations of Heating Values of Municipal Solid Waste by using Multiple Regression Models in Taiwan
Authors:	邱秀文 Hsiu -Wen
Contributors:	張翊峰嘉南藥理科技大學：環境工程與科學系碩士班
Keywords:	多元迴歸分析發熱量經驗推估公式垃圾物理組成 Physical combustible component Local empirical equation of lower heating value Multiple regression model
Date:	2006
Issue Date:	2008-11-24 17:02:54 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究以89-94年台灣都會區及非都會區垃圾物理組成分計42組及91組數據，分析垃圾物理組成分，包括紙類、纖維布類、木竹類、廚餘類、塑膠類、皮革橡膠類及其他類等可燃性成分比例，以多元迴歸統計模式，建立台灣都會區及非都會區垃圾物理組成推估垃圾低位發熱量經驗公式，並將公式所推導之推估值與95年各縣市第一、二季實側低位發熱量資料進行比對，以評估本研究所推導公式應用的可行性。研究結果顯示都會區垃圾發熱量高低與垃圾主要物理組成中塑膠類含量多寡與低位發熱量高低關連性最大，其次為廚餘類及紙類，推導經驗公式判定係數R2為0.997。另在非都會區垃圾發熱量經驗公式中，以廚餘類含量多寡與低位發熱量高低關連性最為密切，其次為紙類、塑膠類，模式判定係數R2為0.999，顯示本研究所推之台灣都會區及非都會區推估垃圾發熱量之經驗公式為合宜的統計推估模式。推估係數結果顯示都會區及非都會區垃圾物理組成塑膠類每降低1%，其每公斤垃圾發熱量將減少4947.8 kcal及3827.3kcal熱值。廚餘類垃圾每降低1%，都會區及非都會區每公斤垃圾將減少4386.7 kcal及4619.5 kcal熱值。紙類則分別減少4947.8kcal及38273 kcal熱值。本研究推估公式與各物理組成或元素分析推估模式比較，顯示本研究推導之經驗公式適用性與精確度為模式中最為精準者，在台灣都會區及非都會區極具實用價值，結果有益於各焚化廠以簡單之物理組成分類，即可預判進入焚化廠垃圾發熱量品質之優劣，據以調整焚化爐之操作條件及進場垃圾低位發熱量變化之政策參考。 This study analyzes the solid waste physics of combustible components by paper, plastic, textile, wood & weed, food waste, rubber & leather and miscellaneous material. The data for this study includes 42 urban areas and 91 non-urban metropolitan areas in Taiwan during the period of 2000 to 2005. The study uses multiple regression analysis to establish the empirical equations of heating values for urban and non-urban metropolitan models in Taiwan. And finally, I compared the actual data for the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2006 to the empirical equations, This comparison was used to evaluate the feasibility of the prediction model in this work. After my research, I found the most important material in terms of heating values in urban metropolitan was plastic, the second was food waste, and third was paper. According to the empirical equations, I found the R square value was 0.997. In the non-urban metropolitan, I found the most important material in terms of heating values was food waste, then paper, then plastic. According to the empirical equations, I found that the R square was 0.999. Since the values are nearly identical, I can certificate that my empirical equations of heating values of urban and non-urban metropolitan models in Taiwan are valid. According to estimated coefficient shown in urban and non-urban metropolitan, if the solid waste of plastic is reduced by 1%, then the heating values of solid waste will be reduced by 4947.8 kcal and 3827.3 kcal per kg. And if the solid waste of food waste is reduced by 1%, the heating values of solid waste will be reduced by 4386.7 kcal and 4619.5 kcal per kg. Lastly, for a 1% reduction for paper would result in the heating values of solid waste being reduced by 4947.8 kcal and 3827.3 kcal per kg. After I compared my analysis with the physical composition analysis and the ultimate analysis, I found that my empirical equations were the most accurate. It calculates the values for urban and non-urban metropolitan areas in Taiwan that can be used to evaluate the quality of solid waste by simple physics component. This method can be used to optimize the operation of incinerators in Taiwan according to Government policies.
Relation:	校內外均一年後公開
Appears in Collections:	[Dept. of Environmental Engineering and Science (including master's program)] Dissertations and Theses

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