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Analysis of the Ecological Capacity on Hot Spring Tourist Spot in Taiwan: An Example of Guanzihling Area
|上傳時間: ||2008-11-24 17:02:52 (UTC+8)|
本研究以關子嶺溫泉區為例，探討此區之遊客量成長趨勢及生態承載量。首先利用時間序列ARIMA模式(ARIMA; Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model)來推估關子嶺溫泉區未來遊客量之成長，再擬合此區之生態承載量來推估未來之最適遊客量。文中對台灣溫泉現況也一併分析。
The importance of the roles that recreation and entertainment play in our life couldn’t be emphasized too much in this century. People need to take a rest and relax by participating in outdoor activities when they feel tried or under too much pressure. Most popular spots now are the hot spring areas. After taking a hot spring SPA, people feel recovered and spirited. However, too many visitors could do serious harm to the precious natural resources. Which means, not only how to evaluate if the hot spring water has been over-used, but the issue about how to maintain the touring quality in hot spring area are also important matters as worth studying.
In this paper, we will take Guanzihlng Hot Spring Area the example, particularly discussing the tendency on the variety of the number of the tourists and the ecological capacity in this area. We are going to use “ARIMA”, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model, to predict the number of future tourists in this area. In combination with the analysis of the ecological capacity, we can find out the most proper number of future tourists in Guanzihling Area.
It turns out that the number of the tourists in Guanzihling Hot Spring Area tends to be increasing. The predicted number of the tourists amounts to 270,000 in the year 2011. The main reason that limited the development of this area lies in the available quantity of spring water. The most proper capacity in Guanzihling Area is predicted about 5,200-10,400 people per day. In other words, if we keep the number of tourists 5,200-10,400 per day, then we could probably maintain the touring quality and keep the balance of the ecological environment at the same time in Guanziling Hot Spring Area.
|Appears in Collections:||[環境工程與科學系(所)] 博碩士論文|
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