以投入產出結構因素分析法探討台灣地區鋼鐵業CO2排放變動效果

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Title:	以投入產出結構因素分析法探討台灣地區鋼鐵業CO2排放變動效果 Assessment and Analysis of CO2 Reduction for Steel Industry in Taiwan ─ An Input-Output Structural Decomposition Methodology Application
Authors:	游智仁 Chih-Jen Yu
Contributors:	林健榮張翊峰嘉南藥理科技大學：環境工程與科學系碩士班
Keywords:	投入產出結構因素分析迪式分解法二氧化碳排放 CO2 emission Divisia Index Input-Output (I-O) structural
Date:	2006
Issue Date:	2008-11-24 17:00:56 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究利用迪式分解法結合投入產出結構因素分析法探討台灣地區鋼鐵產業CO2排放變動效果及其組成效果，研判產業發展過程中CO2排放的特性及關鍵因素，藉以提供相關產業CO2排放減量之參考，以符合京都議定書CO2排放減量要求。本研究首先以迪式指數法將鋼鐵業於1981～2001年間CO2排放之增量組成因素分解為排放係數、能源配比、總能源密集度及生產總值四項因素，結果顯示鋼鐵業於1981～2001年期間CO2增加12.17百萬公噸，其中總能源密集度不具有減量效應，排放係數效果並不顯著，而以鋼鐵業之生產總值為關鍵之主要增量因素，而為探討鋼鐵業生產總值的增量結構效果，本研究進一步以投入產出結構因素分析法將鋼鐵業生產總值的增量因素分解為產業中間投入國產率變化、鋼鐵業向前關連效應、國內最終需求成長及出口成長等四項因素，初步分析結果顯示，鋼鐵業出口成長及國內最終需求成長為CO2排放量增加的最主要因素，鋼鐵業向前關連效應則無明顯減量效果，而產業中間投入國產率因素效果並不顯著。就各項能源的CO2排放而言，以電力使用的CO2排放量增量效應最高，其次為煤品及油品亦具有增量效果。整體而言，鋼鐵業為典型的高耗能、高二氧化碳排放產業，未來鋼鐵業需要加強研發能力，並引進電弧煉鋼新製程，以達節約能源及降低污染之目標。此外，持續改善能源密集度、以提高產品附加價值，減少二氧化碳排放量及相關能源污染物，為鋼鐵業未來永續發展與符合京都議定書CO2排放減量要求之關鍵。 The increment of steel industrial CO2 emission in 1981 to 2001 can be decomposed into four factors by using Divisia Index analysis: (1) the CO2 emission factor, (2) the industrial energy allocation (coefficient), (3) total energy intensity and (4) total production value. According the result of this study, the amount of CO2 emission increased 12.17 million tons during 1981 through 2001, it shows that the increment is caused by total production value mainly. Further, this study utilizes input-output (I-O) structural decomposition analysis to decompose total production value factor. Preliminary result shows that the change of domestic final demand and the export growth are primary factors of CO2 emission increment. In general, steel industry is classic high energy consumption and high CO2 emission sector. It is recommended that steel industry should keep improving research and development capability and employ Arc Steel-making process to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emission,.
Relation:	校內外完全公開
Appears in Collections:	[Dept. of Environmental Engineering and Science (including master's program)] Dissertations and Theses

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