本研究以投入產出結構因素分析方法探討1996~2001年間台灣地區產業的CO2排放量變動趨勢及其組成效果，藉以研判產業發展過程中CO2排放的特性及關鍵因素，期作為未來產業因應CO2減量策略之參考。本研究將造成CO2排放量變動的因素歸納成九項，包括：(1)產業能源直接係數、(2)能源排放係數、(3)各能源排放替代、(4)中間投入國產率變化、(5)中間投入結構變化、(6)國內最終需求成長、(7)國內最終需求結構變動、(8)出口成長、(9)出口結構變化。研究結果顯示，在1991～1996年間，CO2排放增量為39,745公噸，國內最終需求及出口成長皆為增量主要因素，而能源直接係數及產業中間投入結構兩項因素皆有助於CO2減量，顯示此期間產業節約能源及產業結構改善皆有相當的成效；1996~2001年間，CO2排放增量為50,748公噸，出口成長及國內最終需求成長為最主要增量因素，此外，國內最終需求結構變化、產業中間投入結構變化及出口結構變化皆呈現減量效果，顯示這五年間，國內產業最終需求結構有朝向低能源消耗之趨勢。本研究建議相關單位應積極改善能源密集度，降低耗能產業之比例與投資，加強節能與提高能源使用效率，降低對化石燃料之依賴度，並加強推動再生能源之使用率，以因應京都議定書未來對台灣產業所帶來之衝擊。 Carbon dioxide emission in Taiwan is a serious problem that demands continuous efforts of policy makers. By decomposing the changes in CO2 emission into nine factors for the periods 1991 – 1996 and 1996-2001, the input-output structural decomposition method can identify key factors of CO2 emission changes and important trends regarding the industrial development process in Taiwan. Among the decomposed nine factors, the industrial energy coefficient and CO2 emission factor are most important for the determination of the highway, steel and iron, cement, and petrochemical industries as the major sources of increased CO2 emission in the past 10 years. The five year increment with the largest increase of CO2 emission was 1996-2001, due to the rapid increase of electricity emission. From 1991-2001, the level of domestic final demand and the level of exports were the largest contributors to the
increase in total increment of CO2 change. During 1996-2001, the industrial energy coefficient and CO2 emission factor, which were of minimal significance during 1991-1996, became extremely important, joining the domestic final demand and the level of exports factors as the major causes of the increased increment. This indicates a heavy reliance upon high energy and CO2 intensity for Taiwan’s industries; therefore, continuous efforts to improve energy intensity and fuel mix toward lower carbon are important for CO2 reduction, especially for electricity and power generation. Relevant strategies for reducing CO2 emissions from major industries are also highlighted.
