| 摘要: | 本研究以投入產出結構因素分析方法探討70~75年、75~80年、80~85年、85~90年間台灣地區產業的CO2排放量變動趨勢及其組成效果，藉以研判產業發展過程中CO2排放的特性及關鍵因素，作為未來因應溫室效應之產業CO2削減策略的參考。
本研究將造成CO2排放量變動的因素歸納有九項，包括：(1)產業能源直接係數、(2)能源排放係數、(3)各能源排放替代、(4)中間投入國產率變化、(5)中間投入結構變化、(6)國內最終需求成長、(7)國內最終需求結構變動、(8)出口成長、(9)出口結構變化。研究結果顯示，在70~75年間CO2排放增量為15,312公噸，其中以出口成長及國內最終需求成長為最主要增量因素，最終需求結構變動則呈現減量效果，煤品的排放量顯著增加。75～80年間，CO2排放增量為34,874公噸，相較前五年有顯著增加趨勢，其中，出口成長為最主要增量因素，CO2排放係數因素則因燃煤發電量增加亦有增量效果，中間投入國產率的下降則為減量主要來源；80~85年間，CO2排放增量為39,745公噸，國內最終需求及出口成長皆為增量主要因素，而能源直接係數及產業中間投入結構兩項因素皆有助於CO2減量，顯示此期間產業節約能源及產業結構改善皆有相當的成效。85~90年間，CO2排放增量為50,748公噸，出口成長為最主要增量因素，其次為國內最終需求成長，此外，國內最終需求結構變化、產業中間投入結構變化及出口結構變化皆呈現減量效果，顯示這五年間，國內產業最終需求結構有朝向低能源消耗之趨勢，再者是能源CO2排放係數之總量效果增幅亦大，主要受到這五年期間國內經濟成長快速，發電廠發電量大幅增加且偏向高CO2排放之電力結構，所導致電力排放CO2係數的惡化所致。此外，產業中間投入國產率變化效果增加之因素，主要受到中間投入石油產品的依存度提昇及石化產品進口逐漸減少所致。
This study employs input-output (I-O) structural decomposition analysis to examine trends and effects of industrial CO2 emission in Taiwan during 1981~1986, 1986~1991, 1991~1996 and 1996~2001.Then to identify the characteristics and the important factor of industrial CO2 emission in the developing period, and provide the decreasing base of CO2 emission for future.
Changes of CO2 emission can be decomposed into nine factors: (1) the industrial energy coefficient, (2) the CO2 emission factor, (3) interfuel substitution, (4) the rate of domestic production to intermediate input, (5) the structural change of intermediate input, (6) the level of domestic final demand, (7) the change of domestic final demand, (8) the level of exports and (9) the structural change of exports. According the result of this study, the amount of CO2 emission increased 15,312 tons during 1981~1986, it was caused by using more coal. In addition to, the level of domestic final demand and the level of exports are increment factors, the change of domestic final demand caused decrement effect. From 1986 to 1991, the increment of CO2 emission that compared with the pass five years period was 34,874 tons. The main increment factor was the export growth quickly, and the rate of domestic production to the intermediate input was primary decrement factor. The amount of CO2 emission to rise up 39,745 tons between 1991 and 1996, the level of domestic final demand and the level of exports grown astonishing up were two key increment causes. However the energy direct coefficient and the structure of intermediate input to industries were two principal decrement causes, they shown that the economization of energy and the improvement of industrial structure were effectual in this period. During 1996 to 2001, the growth of CO2 emission was higher 50,748 tons than the previous five years, the result was caused due to both the level of exports and that of domestic final demand. Besides the structural change of domestic final demand, intermediate input to industries and export offered decrement effect. They displayed which the structure of domestic final demand oriented lower energy consumption. As the rate of economic growth risen up very quickly and the electricity production applied a lot of the energy that produced higher CO2 emission, the energy coefficient expanded the total amount of CO2 emission greatly in these five years. In addition to, the input of the oil production to all industries ascended and the export of petroleum production descended gradually, causing the rate of domestic production to intermediate input to grow up. |
