| 摘要: | 本文利用投入產出、能源及CO2乘數分析、能源結構分析，探討70年至88年，台灣石油化學產業中的石化原料業、塑膠原料業、人造纖維、塑膠製品及橡膠製品的產業關聯對能源消費及CO2排放量之乘數效應，以研判石化業的產業經濟與能源效益及CO2排放特性，最後在兼顧經濟發展情況下，以模糊目標規劃石油化學產業能源消費結構優化，以抑制CO2排放。
研究結果顯示，我國石化產業中以石化原料業、塑膠原料業及塑膠製品業總關聯效果較大。從70年至88年石化原料業總關聯程度在全國34個產業排名第4或第5，顯示該產業帶動及支持其他產業發展貢獻頗大。塑膠原料業自70年至85年總關聯效果維持在12至14名，88年上升至第8，顯示其貢獻上下游相關產業發展也不容忽視。人造纖維業歷年來向前關聯度遠比向後關聯度低，顯示其支持下游產業發展比帶動上游產業發展較不理想。塑膠製品業70年至85年間，總關聯度排序在6至10變動，88年對不同產業的影響減弱為13名。橡膠製品業歷年來總關聯效果遠低於產業之平均值，在34產業部門居26至28名，其支持帶動相關產業發展微弱。由能源乘數分析結果顯示，石化原料業、塑膠原料業及人造纖維業之能源乘數值自70至88年一直高居整體產業排序之前10名，若以歷年來平均值分別為39.61×107kcal/百萬元、18.74×107kcal/百萬元及18.54×107kcal/百萬元，在34個產業排名1、6、8，顯示三者均為典型的高耗能產業。而橡膠製品業與橡膠製品業之能源乘數歷年來平均值為8.67、7.74×107kcal/百萬元，在整體產業分居17及20名，五個產業共佔34產業能源乘數的24.21%，接近四分之一弱，說明石化產業耗用能源非常可觀。二氧化碳乘數分析顯示，70 年至88年來石化原料業、塑膠原料業、人造纖維素、塑膠製品業及橡膠製品業之平均值分別為42.61公噸/百萬元、37.78公噸/百萬元、52.66公噸/百萬元、23.83公噸/百萬元及26.70公噸/百萬元，佔34個整體產業的15.38%，顯示石油化學工業貢獻CO2排放量頗大。在CO2減量效果方面，能源價格變動應以煤炭為主要對象對石油化學產業較為有利。整體而言，石化原料業、塑膠原料業、人造纖維、塑膠製品及橡膠製品等石化產業為典型的高耗能、高二氧化碳排放產業，未來這些產業需要加強研發能力，選擇優良產品開發，提高產業的關聯效果。此外，持續改善能源密集度、以提高產品附加價值，減少二氧化碳排放量及相關能源污染物，為石化工業未來永續發展之關鍵。
This study uses input-output analysis, multiplier analysis and energy structural decomposition analysis to investigate inter-industry linkage, energy consumption and CO2 emission characteristics of the petroleum chemical industry from 1981 to 1999 in Taiwan, to identify the major effective of inter-industry economic and energy factors contributing to the industry. Then consider both economy and environment to scheme the optimum energy consumption by using a input-output fuzzy goal programming, in order to reduce CO2 emission.
Results of this study indicate that total linkage of petroleum material sector, plastic material sector and plastic products sector in petroleum chemical industry are relatively high. From 1981 to 1999, the total linkage of petroleum material sector ranks 4 or 5 in 34 sectors, this shows that it is more significant in contributing to other industry develop. From 1981 to 1996, the total linkage of plastic material sector rank keeps 12 to 14, and rises 8 in 1999, this totals me that it promoting the develop of other relative industry can’t negligible. The forward linkage of artificial fiber sector in the year pass is lower than the back linkage. During 1981 to 1996, the total linkage of plastic products sector rank 6 to 10, but to descend 13 in 1999. Through the years, the total linkage effective of rubber products sector in the year pass is lower than average value. Energy multiplier analysis illustrates that the rank of the petroleum material sector, plastic material and artificial fiber sector are top 10 in the year pass, the average value are 39.61, 18.74 and 18.54×107kcal/million NT, rank are 1, 6, 8. This reveals that the three sector consume energy very high. The average energy multiplier of plastic products sector and rubber products sector is 8.67, 7.74×107kcal/ million NT, rank are 17, 18. The five sectors hold 24.21% in 34 sectors, almost one of fourth, it is wonderful. The results of CO2 multiplier analysis
Ⅲ
demonstrate that the average value of the five sectors are 42.61、37.78、52.66、
23.83 and 26.70 ton/million NT, these hold 15.38% in 34 sectors, to show that CO2 emission from the petroleum industry is considerable high. In view of CO2 reduction effect, changing coal price is the best method for the petroleum chemical industry. On the whole, the petroleum material sector, the plastic material sector, the artificial fiber sector, the plastic products sector and rubber products sector are all high consume energy and high CO2 emission industry. These industry should make efforts to the capacity of the investigation, to develop good products and to raise the linkage efficiency in the future. In addition to, continuing to improve energy intensity, to increase the additional value and to decrease CO2 emission and relative pollutant. |
