本研究的目是對電力事業中各能源消費、二氧化碳排放潛能變動趨勢和乘數分析之探討，瞭解各產業互動關係、能源消費和污染物排放所引發關聯效果，利用產業關聯和模糊目標規劃方法，來建構台灣電力事業和二氧化碳減量關聯模式，進而研擬可行的二氧化碳減量策略，包含電力機組燃料選擇不同、增大燃氣機組容量因素等方案；同時針對未來核能電廠提前除役，以乾淨低碳燃氣發電機組替代效果，模擬結果可提供決策單位規劃電力事業和二氧化碳減量的參考。
研究結果顯示，產業關聯分析結果顯示，陸上運輸及鋼鐵業與台灣地區二氧化碳的排放有顯著關聯性，應列為主要減量對象；本研究中支持性產業有其他服務業、鋼鐵業、商品買賣業、電力供應業等，帶動性產業為紡織成衣業、食品菸酒業、鋼鐵業、人造纖維、營造工程等；電力乘數分析結果以煤製品、人造纖維、其他化工原料、水泥業等電力乘數值皆高，顯示為高耗能電力消費業；投入產出模糊目標規劃模擬結果顯示，減量方案中以燃氣發電機組最具減量效果，其中以增加燃氣發電機組容量因素方案，可提供足夠電量和抑制二氧化碳排放量。 The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of electric sectors in Taiwan. The study uses input-output analysis and multiplier analysis to identify inter-industry linkage, energy consumption and CO2 emission characteristics. Results indicate that the highway and steel sectors are identified as the most significant industries which cause CO2 emission. On the other hand, A input-output fuzzy goal programming is applied to analysis the interrelationships between electric generation and CO2 emissions. Strategies of CO2 reduction include increasing proportions of natural gas. Also, alternatives of nuclear-free homeland evaluated for the effectiveness of CO2 reduction.
Results of input-output analysis indicate that steel and textile sector the most high-energy and high-pollution emission. On the other hand, results of input-output fuzzy goal programming model this study indicate that enhancing electrical fuel alternate natural gas electrical is the most effective for CO2 reduction. Increasing captive factor of natural gas electric for nuclear-free homeland policy.
