An online time-to-event dashboard comparing the effective control of COVID-19 among continents using the inflection point on an ogive curve Observational study

doi:10.1097/MD.0000000000024749

CNU IR > College of Sustainable Environment and Recreation > Dept. of Sports Management > Periodical Articles > Item 310902800/34451

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Title:	An online time-to-event dashboard comparing the effective control of COVID-19 among continents using the inflection point on an ogive curve Observational study
Authors:	Lee, Keng-Wei Chien, Tsair-Wei Yeh, Yu-Tsen Chou, Willy Wang, Hsien-Yi
Contributors:	Chi Mei Med Ctr, Dept Cardiol Chi Mei Med Ctr, Dept Med Res St Georges Univ London, Med Sch Chiali Chi Mei Hosp, Dept Phys Med & Rehabil Chia Nan Univ Pharm & Sci, Dept Sport Management Chi Mei Med Ctr, Nephrol Dept
Keywords:	absolute advantage coefficient area under the curve COVID-19 infection point item response theory ogive curve
Date:	2021
Issue Date:	2023-11-11 11:53:33 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS
Abstract:	Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the frequently asked questions is which countries (or continents) are severely hit. Aside from using the number of confirmed cases and the fatality to measure the impact caused by COVID-19, few adopted the inflection point (IP) to represent the control capability of COVID-19. How to determine the IP days related to the capability is still unclear. This study aims to (i) build a predictive model based on item response theory (IRT) to determine the IP for countries, and (ii) compare which countries (or continents) are hit most. Methods: We downloaded COVID-19 outbreak data of the number of confirmed cases in all countries as of October 19, 2020. The IRT-based predictive model was built to determine the pandemic IP for each country. A model building scheme was demonstrated to fit the number of cumulative infected cases. Model parameters were estimated using the Solver add-in tool in Microsoft Excel. The absolute advantage coefficient (AAC) was computed to track the IP at the minimum of incremental points on a given ogive curve. The time-to-event analysis (a.k.a. survival analysis) was performed to compare the difference in IPs among continents using the area under the curve (AUC) and the respective 95% confidence intervals (CIs). An online comparative dashboard was created on Google Maps to present the epidemic prediction for each country. Results: The top 3 countries that were hit severely by COVID-19 were France, Malaysia, and Nepal, with IP days at 263, 262, and 262, respectively. The top 3 continents that were hit most based on IP days were Europe, South America, and North America, with their AUCs and 95% CIs at 0.73 (0.61-0.86), 0.58 (0.31-0.84), and 0.54 (0.44-0.64), respectively. An online time-event result was demonstrated and shown on Google Maps, comparing the IP probabilities across continents. Conclusion: An IRT modeling scheme fitting the epidemic data was used to predict the length of IP days. Europe, particularly France, was hit seriously by COVID-19 based on the IP days. The IRT model incorporated with AAC is recommended to determine the pandemic IP.
Relation:	MEDICINE, v.100, n.10, e24749
Appears in Collections:	[Dept. of Sports Management] Periodical Articles

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