都市垃圾(Municipal Solid Waste, MSW)的低位發熱值(Lower Heating Value, LHV)是焚化爐規劃設計與營運操作管理的重要參數，掌握進廠垃圾的低位發熱量是焚化爐操作管理中相當重要的課題。國內外學者收集垃圾相關的組成特性，已推導出多組低位發熱量推估公式。而低位發熱量推估模式之應用可行性，可能會因垃圾產生地區居民排出垃圾組成的不同而異，故亟需進行本土化的驗證。 本研究收集臺灣地區97年至102年北、中、南區合計16廠垃圾焚化廠每季進料垃圾採樣分析資料共614組數據，並擷取其中資料較完整之10座焚化爐共440組數據，帶入所收集之預估模式，並將模式所推導之推估值與實測資料進行?對平均百分比誤差MAPE比對，以評估各類低位發熱量推估模式可行性。 根據本研究使用MAPE值驗證後，顯示出本研究所收集與評估後之建議模式之低位發熱量經驗公式在預估臺灣地區垃圾的準確性，僅需以基本之乾、濕基垃圾之物理組成特性，帶入該推估模式，即可預估出該垃圾之低位發熱值，並顯示了高度的精確度。 The lower heating value (LHV) of municipal solid waste (MSW) has often been a crucial parameter for the management of an incinerator determining its designed operation. Controlling the LHV of the waste thus is one essential task in the management of incinerators. Previous research has developed various LHV prediction models with different methods of analysis based on past experience. The application and the feasibility of a LHV prediction model however vary by regions. Verification of models with local data is prerequisite. In previous work in our lab, two empirical prediction models using multiple regression analysis were developed for incinerators in Taiwan. To further understand and verify the application of these two empirical models, this study compared them with other existing models from previous research. Samples of the MSW from 16 incinerators located in northern, middle, and southern parts of Taiwan every season from 2008 to 2013 were collected, resulting in 614 data in total. Only 440 data from 10 incinerators were used to predict the LHV due to missing data. An analysis of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was conducted to compare the LHV calculated by each prediction model with the actual values. The results of MAPE analysis revealed high level of precision of the two empirical models on predicting the LHV of the waste in Taiwan. Particularly, unlike other prediction models that require various types of data and analysis, merely basic physical composition of dry-based and wet-based MSW was necessary for these two empirical models to accurately estimate the LHV of the waste.
