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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ir.cnu.edu.tw/handle/310902800/28674

    標題: Research note: A study of the business cycle of the hotel industry in Taiwan
    作者: Chen, Ming-Hsiang
    Wu, Kun Lun
    Su, Hung-Jen
    貢獻者: 餐旅管理系
    關鍵字: business cycle
    hotel industry
    room sales
    Markov regime-switching model
    日期: 2014-06
    上傳時間: 2015-05-06 21:24:43 (UTC+8)
    出版者: I P Publishing Ltd
    摘要: This paper exploits a Markov regime-switching model to study the business cycle of the hotel industry (BCHI) in Taiwan from January 1999 to September 2011. The aggregate hotel room sales earnings are used to examine the business cycle of the Taiwanese hotel industry. The Markov regime-switching model detects two distinct regimes of the BCHI: a high-growth regime (HGR) and a low-growth regime (LGR). The average growth rate of HGR (LGR) is 4.12% (0.35%). The corresponding standard deviation in the two regimes is 5.60% and 0.30%, implying that LGR is more stable than HGR. The probability of the hotel industry staying in LGR (HGR) is 97% (66%) and the expected duration of HGR (LGR) is about 3 (39) months. Moreover, this study shows that the tourism market growth is significant in causing the hotel industry to stay in the HGR. The empirical findings provide useful information and policy implications for government tourism policymakers and tourist hotel managers.
    關聯: Tourism Economics, v.20 n.3, pp.655-664
    Appears in Collections:[餐旅管理系] 期刊論文

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