本計畫主要應用華人動態調查資料庫之資料，由動態的觀點探討家戶居住遷移 與換屋之決策。本研究為三年期計畫，於第一年期，將使用PSFD 第一年計畫（RI1999） 及第二年計畫（RI2000）之主樣本。首先將把樣本區分為三個世代，分別為老年世 代、中壯世代以及青壯世代。再依據受訪者之年齡區分為三個階段，應用多重事件 比例危險模型分別建構模型，藉以分析台灣地區各個世代於各年齡階段，家戶居住 遷移之主要影響因素。由於擁屋者之遷移成本與租屋者有極大不同，兩者居住遷移 行為存在極大差異。本計畫於第二年期將利用歷年追蹤調查資料，以台灣地區擁屋 家戶為觀察對象，並將樣本依據首次調查時之家庭結構區分為主幹家庭與核心家 庭，應用競爭風險模型探討擁屋家戶向上遷移與向下遷移的主要影響因素。本研究 於第三年期，將應用該資料庫於中國大陸的調查資料。中國近年來由社會主義經濟 逐漸轉型至市場經濟，住宅改革亦在1988 年於全面展開，目的在於導入市場機制至 以補貼為主之先前住宅系統，在此住宅改革轉型期，家戶居住遷移行為應與台灣有 極大之同。本計畫將以雙變量模型，建構家戶居住遷移與住宅權屬之聯合選擇模型， 比較台灣與中國沿海地區家戶住宅行為的差異。 In this study, we propose a 3-year project attempting to use the data of Panel Study of Family Dynamics to explore the effect of residential mobility and relocation decision from the dynamic point of view. In first year, we would use the data of main respondent from RI1999 and RI2000 as our empirical samples, and divide the samples into three cohorts by the birth years of respondent. We use the multiple episodes proportional hazard to construct the empirical model and compare the difference among three cohorts. In second year, we use the panel data of households and housing condition for the period 1999-2007 and divide the samples into “nuclear family” and “stem family”. We estimate the competing risks model for homeowners to analyze the factors that affect upward movement and downward movement. In third year, we use the China household data surveyed by PSFD. In the transition from socialist economics to market mechanisms, housing reform in China was launched in 1998. It aims to introduce market mechanisms to subsidies housing system and transform housing from welfare goods to commodities. In this transitional period, the residential mobility behavior of China Households might be different from Taiwanese. We would estimate a bivariate model of both residential mobility and tenure choice decision and compare the difference between Taiwan and China.
