臺灣隨著社會、人口及經濟的發展，無論是社會結構或生活型態都有著重大的改變。自周休二日後，明顯提升國人旅遊的頻率，這也使得臺灣旅遊市場益漸蓬勃發展。然而這些各式各項不同型態的旅遊活動多半會為當地生態環境帶來程度不一的衝擊影響，甚至導致遊憩品質的惡化與環境不可回復的破壞，因此經營管理者所面臨的挑戰是一方面需滿足大眾的遊憩需求，同時又必須維持遊憩區生態與景觀資源的完整性。
本研究主要目的為以四重溪溫泉遊憩區環境資訊資料蒐集為基礎，首先利用時間序列模式來推估四重溪溫泉遊憩區未來遊客成長量，並同時考慮當地之生態承載量來推估未來四重溪溫泉區之最適遊客量，並進一步研擬改進之方法。
研究結果顯示，以SARIMA（1,0,1）（1,1,0）12模式來推估未來四重溪溫泉遊憩區的遊客量有持續增加的趨勢，根據本研究對四重溪溫泉遊憩區在生態承載量方面的推估，其活動空間最大承載量為每日100,000人次，最大交通承載量為每日55,000人次。溫泉可用水量每日最多可供應6,700人次，當地的溫泉旅館每日最多可容納12,000人次。此區之發展限制因素主要是在可用溫泉水可用水量的部份，以此做為此區的最適生態承載量。 There has been a significant change within the Taiwanese society structure and life style due to development within the society, population and economy. The Two day-off weekend created an obvious increase in the rate of local tourist which expands the development of the Taiwanese tourism market.
Most of the different type of activities in tourism will have an impact of affecting the environment, with most of the activities resulting in irreversible damage to the environment. Therefore managing the need to satisfy the need of the tourist situation is a great challenge, yet at the same it is also necessary to maintain the perfectness of the environmental state and tourism resource.
The main goal of this study is to use the environmental information collected from the Sichong river hot spring area as the foundation for the investigation. First we use time sequence pattern to estimate the future tourist growth rate of Sihchong river hot spring area. At the same time we have to estimate the local ecological capacity in order to estimate the most suitable tourist rate of Sihchong river hot spring area in the future follow by drawing up a method for improvement.
This research indicates continuous increase in the future tourist rate by using Seasonal-Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model. Based on the research targeting the Sichong river hot spring area relating to the estimation of the carrying capacity, the maximum burden of activity is 100,000 people per day.
The maximum transportation capacity for the number of tourist is 55,000 people. The maximum amount of hot spring water can provide for 6,700 people and the daily hot spring spa capacity is 12,000 people. The limitation factor for the development of Sichong river hot spring area lies in the allowable water usage rate, thus making this area bearable for carrying capacity.
