| 摘要: | 本文僅從重大危害的觀點來實施量化的風險分析。分析的方法主要參考世界各國t較著名的報告，並依永安地區之風速、風向、大氣穩定度、與人口結構，估計LNG任廠內及廠外發生火災、爆炸所造成的廠外當地民眾的個人風險(IR)和造成多人死亡均社區風險(SR)。以下是此次研究的結果:一、岸邊卸料轉運設備的風險:血)距海上池潭火災(pool fire)500~950公尺的IR= 3 X 10 -6/年 臣1200公尺的IR--0.6X 10-6/年 距950公尺內的SR :≧10人傷亡機率=20000 X 10 -6/年 ≧1000人傷亡機率=200 X J0- 6/年 (b)距碼頭405~600公尺爆炸的IR= 31.25 x 10 、6/年 巨600~1275公尺爆炸的IR= 12.SX 10--6/年 距275公尺內爆炸的SR :≧10人傷亡機率= 125x 10-6/年 (c)氣雲造成整個永安地區的IR=26.7x 10、6/年 SR :≧10人傷亡機率~25X 10-6/年 二、LNG或NG輸送管的風險 (a)氣雲造成整個永安地區的IR-50X 10-6/年 SR :≧10人傷亡機率=71.6X 10-6/年因岸邊卸料轉運設備或LNG輸送管的個人風險都大於10- 6/年，恐難以被廠外社區民眾接受，故中油公司有必要實槨市守奈的下稈栘制與管理控制。本報告最後提出一些建議，供中油公司參考。
Since Yung An LNG Terminal was built by Chinese Petroleum Corporation in 1984,:nvironmental impacl assessment has been carried out to meet mandatory law requirements.ualitative hazard analysis and quantitative risk analysis for LNG Terminal are accordingly included. While only quantitative risk analysis is presented in this study. The methodology of risk analysis adopted mainly excerpts some pioneering and outstanding works from Canvey Report, USNRC Wash 1400 and Rijnmond Report. Although preciseuantitication has inherent diMculties in general and no tully agreea outcome is possible, however the study trys hard to be more realistic. Wind speed, wind direction, weather stability and population structure arovnd Yung An area have been taken into account to estimate individual risks and societal risks, which result from on-site and off-site possible major accidents. The results of the risk analyses are: I.risks of ship-to-shore transfer vnloading equipments (a)pool hre on sea up to 500~950m, IR_-3x 10-6/yr (b)pool fire on sea within 950 m, ≧10 casulties, SR_-20000X IU h/yr ≧1000 casulties, SR_- 200X 10-6/yr c)explosion from vnloading jetty up to 405~600 m, IR_-31.25x 10-6/yr (d)explosion from unloading jetty within 1275 m,≧ 10 casulties, SR_-125X 10-6/yr e)gas cloud fire and explosion affect the whole Yung An area IR-_26.7x 10-6/yr ≧10 casulties, SR=25x 10--6/yr 2.Risk of LNG or NG pipeline (a)gas cloud nre and explosion aNect the vvbole Yung An area IR=50x 10-6/yr ≧10 casulties, SR_-71.6x 10-6/yr Because risks of ship-to-shore transfer unloading equipments or risks of LNG pipeline are greater than 10--6 per year, it will normally be unacceptable to the svrrounding communities. To ease fear of the public, it is necessary for Chinese Petroleum Corporation to initate intrinsically safer engineering and management Controls. Some recommendations are also oflered, in expection of reducing risks to a reasonably acceptable level. |
