| 摘要: | 本研究主要針對環保署執行淘汰老舊二行程機車計畫，針對各項空氣污染物之有效減量進行評析，以96～98年度於高高屏地區執行之計畫為研究對象，研究結果將可作為政策推行之評估參考依據。
本研究首先假設三種車輛使用年限情境下（保守；樂觀；折衷），配合各車齡排放係數及里程數，分別推算老舊二行程機車總削減量，並以問卷方式統計替代工具比例後計算排放增量，而上述兩項數據之差值即為空氣污染有效削減量。此外，本研究並以等量效益數值，進一步評析淘汰不同車齡之二行程機車之空氣污染物減量效益。
研究結果顯示，計畫執行期間高高屏地區共計汰換89,729萬輛七年以上之老舊二行程機車，以三種假設情境之空氣污染物有效削減量分別為NOx增量71 ton、162 ton及50 ton；THC減量818 ton、4,821 ton及2,264 ton；CO減量344 ton、4,185 ton及2,486 ton；而TSP減量16 ton、100 ton及48 ton。針對三種空氣污染物之有效削減量與「排放清冊資料庫（TEDs 7.0）」進行分析顯示，不同情境下之THC有效減量僅為高屏地區年總排放量之0.5～3％，為移動污染源總年排放量之2～13％；不同情境下之CO有效減量僅為高屏地區年總排放量之0.2～2％，為移動污染源總年排放量之0.2～3％；不同情境下之TSP有效減量僅為高屏地區年總排放量之0.01～0.08％，為移動污染源總年排放量之0.3～2％。
以樂觀情境估算，針對THC有效減量而言，淘汰一台車齡7年二行程機車將減量187 kg、19年車為6 kg，淘汰20年車齡以上機車則無THC減量成效；針對CO有效減量而言，淘汰7年車將減量175 kg、15年車為21 kg，淘汰16年車齡以上則無CO減量成效；針對TSP有效減量而言，淘汰7年車將減量12 kg、14年車為0.5 kg，淘汰15年車齡以上則無TSP減量成效。結果顯示車齡較低車輛之空氣污染物有效減量較高，車齡越高則有效減量越低。
本研究進一步以等量效益成效將總汰舊補助金額進行重新分配，淘汰車齡較低車輛之補助金額較高，車齡越高則補助金額越低，其中淘汰車齡7年機車可分配3521元/台；10年車為2328元/台；15年車為810元/台；18年車為104元/台，19年（含）以上車齡機車則因無空氣污染物等量減量效益不核發補助金。以減量成本效益分析，目前齊頭補助淘汰不同車齡二行程機車之政策應有值得商討空間，本研究結果將可作為政策推行之評估參考依據。
This research is primary aimed at the plan made by Environmental Protection Administration to execute retiring two stroke motorcycle ,in order to estimate the effective reduction of each air pollutant.The objects of research are plans that executed in Kaohsiung City, Kaohsiung County, and Pintung County during 96~98 ,and the result will become the estimated basis to carry out policies.
At first, in order to calculate the total reduction of old two stroke motorcycle separately,we assume that under the useful life circumstances - conservative,optimistic,and comprising - of three kinds of cars with the factor and mileage of each age of car. Then we figure out the enhancement of emission after gathering statistics of substitution percentage.The difference value between two statistics above is the effective reduction of air pollution.
The result shows that during executing period, 89729million of old two stroke motorcycle over 7 years were eliminated in Kaohsiung City, Kaohsiung County, and Pintung County.The effective reduction of air pollution under three circumstances are enhancement of NOx 71ton,162ton,and 50 ton,reduction of THC 818 ton,4821 ton,2264 ton,reduction of CO 344 ton,4185 ton,2486ton,and reduction of TSP 16 ton,100 ton,and48 ton respectly.Analysis of the effective reduction of three kinds of air pollution and database of emission detail(TEDs7.0) shows that under different circumstances, the effective reduction of THC,CO and TSP are only 0.5% to 3% ,0.2% to 2%,and 0.01% to 0.08% of total yearly emission amount of the Greater Kaohsiung Pintung area,and 2% to13% ,0.2% to 3%,and 0.3% to 2% of total yearly moving pollutant emission amount .
The estimate under optimistic situation aimed at the effective reduction of THC is that retiring a 7-year- old and 19-year-old two stroke motorcycle will lead to 187kg and 6kg reduction.Retiring those over 20-year-old has no effect on it.For CO,retire 7-year-old and 15-year-old will lead to reduction of 175kg and 21kg.Retiring those over16-year-old has no effect.For TSP,retire 7-year-old and 14-year-old will lead to 12kg and 0.5 kg reduction.Retiring those over 15-year-old has no effect.The result shows that the older the age is,the higher the effective reduction of pollution is,and vice versa.
The research goes a step further to use equivalent beneficial outcome to redistribute the total allowance of retiring,the lower the age is,the higher the allowance is,and vice versa.Retireing 7-year-old,10-year-old,15-year-old and 18-year-old can get $3521,$2328,$810 and $104.But retiring over 19-year-old(included)won’t get allowance because of not having equivalent reduction beneficial outcome of air pollution.Analysing the decreasing cost benefit,the policy to subsidize retiring two stroke motorcycle of different age can be discussed.This research outcome will become the estimated basis to carry out policies. |
