| 摘要: | 本研究室以投入產出結構因素分析方法探討1991年至1996年、1996年至2001年、2001年至2006年間台灣地區整體產業的二氧化碳排放變動趨勢及各項投入產出結構因素變化效果，藉以研判產業發展過程中島至二氧化碳排放的特性及關鍵因素，作為因應溫室效應問題，產業對於二氧化碳減量的參考。
本研究將造成二氧化碳排放量變動的因素歸納有九項，包括：產業能源直接係數、能源排放係數、各能源排放替代、中間投入國產率變化、中間投入結構變化、國內最終需求成長、國內最終需求結構變動、出口成長、出口結構變化。研究結果顯示，1991年至1996年間二氧化碳排放增量為48,992千公噸，出口成長為最主要增量因素，其次為國內最終需求成長，能源直接係數變化、能源排放係數總量、產業中間投入國產率變化、產業中間投入結構變化、國內最終需求結構變化及出口結構變化因素，皆呈現減量效果。1996年至2001年間，二氧化碳排放增量為64,251千公噸，相較前五年有顯著增加趨勢，能源需求為帶動增量的主流，其次，排放增量的第二位為出口成長因素，而產業中間投入結構變化、最終需求結構變化以及出口結構變化皆為減量的主要因素。2001年至2006年間，二氧化碳排放增量為41,561千公噸，出口成長為主要增量因素，其次為產業中間投入國產率變化，而能源直接係數變化、產業中間投入結構變化及國內最終需求結構變化三項因素皆為減量主要因素。
This study employed the method of input-output (I-O) structural analysis to examine the effects of industrial CO2 emission in Taiwan during 1991~1996, 1996~2001 and 2001~2006, which also identified the characteristics and the important factors of CO2 emission from developing industries, and provided the reference for CO2 emission depletion in the future.
The factors regarding the variations of CO2 emission were categorized into nine points, including the coefficient number of industrial energy, the coefficient number of CO2 emission, the substitution of CO2 emission, the variation of intermediate input to domestic production, the structural change of intermediate input, the growth rate of final domestic demand, the structure change of final domestic demand, the growth rate of exports, and the structural change of exports.
Based on the result of this study, the amount of CO2 emission was increased to 48,992 kilotons during 1991~1996, where the increasing level of exports was the majority factor. The increasing level of final domestic demand was the second factor. The coefficient number of industrial energy, coefficient number of CO2 emission, the variation of intermediate input to domestic production, the structural change of intermediate input, the growth rate of final domestic demand and the structure change of final domestic demand were illustrated as decreasing effects. Moreover, from 1996 to 2001, the amount of CO2 emission was increased to 64,251kilotons. The number was dramatically increased compared to previous five years. The majority factor was the increasing energy demand, and the increasing level of exports was considered as the second factor. The structural change of intermediate input and the growth rate of final domestic demand were evidenced as primary decreasing factors. Furthermore, from 2001 and 2006, the amount of CO2 emission was increased to 41,561 kilotons. The increasing level of exports was considered as the majority factor, while the variation of intermediate input to domestic production was the second factor. The coefficient number of industrial energy, the structural change of intermediate input, and the growth rate of final domestic demand were evidenced as decreasing factors. |
