台灣地區CO2排放指標因素分析

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標題:	台灣地區CO2排放指標因素分析 The Study Of CO2 Emission Indicator Factor Analysis OF Electric Power Industry In Taiwan
作者:	黃盛雄
貢獻者:	張翊峰嘉南藥理科技大學：環境工程與科學系曁研究所
關鍵字:	因素分解法拉氏指標法脫鉤指標分析 CO2排放趨勢 Factor Analysis Approach Lagrangean relaxation Decoupling indicators analysis tendency of CO2 emission
日期:	2009
上傳時間:	2010-06-08 13:57:03 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本次研究以台灣地區電力能源消耗為探討對象，分析CO2排放指標因素，首先運用因素分析拉氏指標法，將CO2排放相關變動之關鍵因素進行分析後，再以產業關聯分析了解其電力消費部門，相互關係及因能源消費或污染排放所引發的關聯效應，最後並利用脫鉤指標分析電力能源消費、CO2排放與GDP互動效應。研究結果顯示，我國以電力消費為主要CO2排放來源，民國76年時例約占總CO2排放比例約32.5％，至民國97年CO2排放量已明顯增加，現占總CO2排放比例約55.5％，年帄均成長率達6.63％。研析主要排放源來自於能源部門，而我國能源部門中電力事業仍以燃煤、油及天然氣之火力發電機組所產生量最多。民國89年前GDP呈現直線快速增長現象，以後上升幅度有較明顯趨緩現象；而電力消費CO2排放產業結構變化趨勢中發現，鋼鐵(含高爐)及油氣煉製業等二項產業，環境污染程度與其經濟成長之貢獻顯著不成比例，就電力消費結構產業最具改善之潛力。產業關聯效果及CO2排放效應方面，向前關聯效果以化學材料製造業為最高，其他製造業則為最低；向後關聯效果以鋼鐵業為最高，電力供應業則為最低。脫鉤指標分析方面，OECD脫鉤指標分析發現，電力消費及其CO2排放的脫鉤因子有明顯逐年下降的情況，顯示相關單位應針對發電的能源結構進行改善，降低電力CO2排放係數，以減少CO2的排放量；而Tapio脫鉤指標進行分析發現，大多數的點皆是位於標準偏差圈外，則顯示我國CO2排放量對GDP之脫鉤狀態，需要改善的部份還是佔大多數。其研究結果希望可作為全國電力使用分配及未來產業發展規劃，其我國邁向符合溫室氣體減量的國際條約規定，以達永續發展之策略參考。 The Lagrangean relaxation, industry relational analysis and decoupling index were used to explore the key factor of relative variations of CO2 emission by electrical energy consumption in Taiwan, and were used to understand the relative effect of the interrelationship of electrical energy consumers and the relative effect of energy consumption and pollution emission by industry relational analysis and interaction effect of electrical energy consumption、CO2 emission and GDP. According to an investigation, the main source of CO2 emission was electrical energy consumption. In 1987, Electrical Energy consumption was took 32.5% of the Annual Total CO2 Emissions. Until 2008, it had up to 55.5%.The annual average growth of CO2 emission was above 6.63%. The energy department is the main cause of large CO2 emission as powered by coal、diesel and gas engine. Before 2000,GDP grows fast on electric power consumption、CO2 emission and the tendency of economic growth and then slow down later. The trend of industry’s structure changing in the electric power consumption and CO2 emission shows that the pollution on the environment was noticeably not be proportional to the economic growth in the iron & steel industry and petrochemical feedstocks of chemical materials industry。The structure of electric power consumption industry is the most potential for improvement. In The interrelationship of Inter-industry Linkage Effects and CO2 emission, the forward linkages were affected by chemical manufacturing most and other industries affect least. The backward linkages were affected by Steel Industry most and the electric power supply industry least. The OECD decoupling shows the factor of electricity consumption and CO2 emission were gradually decreased by year. It’s also means the structure of Power Generation is still room for improvement in lowers the CO2 emission characteristics and cuts down the CO2emmission by relational units. Tapio decoupling index analysis revealed most points of the index were out of standard deviation for instrument which proved the CO2 emission in Taiwan has stray from GDP as well. The conclusion of this study is expected to be a reference of national Electricity distribution and industries development in the future for step on conforming to the requirements of international greenhouse gas emission reduction and Sustainable Development strategy.
關聯:	校內外均一年後公開，學年度：97， 114頁
顯示於類別:	[環境工程與科學系(所)] 博碩士論文

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