台灣地區服務業部門能源消費與CO2排放變動關聯分析

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標題:	台灣地區服務業部門能源消費與CO2排放變動關聯分析 Relational Analysis between Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission Variation of Service Sector in Taiwan
作者:	林建廷
貢獻者:	張翊峰嘉南藥理科技大學：環境工程與科學系研究所
關鍵字:	服務業部門 CO2排放因素分析 Service Sector CO2 Emission Factor Analysis Input-output Analysis Multiplier Analysis Decomposition Analysis
日期:	2009
上傳時間:	2010-06-08 13:52:28 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本研究主要目的在於探討台灣地區服務業部門歷年能源消費、CO2排放變動關聯分析及之影響因素。首先利用因素分析迪氏指標法，探討影響其排放變動之關鍵因素，再以產業關聯分析、乘數效應分析了解其服務業部門的的相互關係及因能源消費或污染排放所引發的關聯效應，最後並利用脫鉤指標分析服務業部門能源消費、CO2排放與GDP互動效應。研究結果顯示，我國服務業部門能源消費結構配比以電力消費為主要來源，油品及天然氣所佔比例較小。CO2排放趨勢方面，以燃料類別而言，電力排放平均比例高達87％以上。在因素分析方面，主要影響CO2排放增量的因素為生產總值和排放係數為主要增量因素，其中以生產總值成長影響最大，其次是為排放係數，而能源總密集度則是唯一減量因素。在產業關聯分析方面，服務業部門之產業關聯特性多屬於具有明顯的向前關聯效果，但對於影響其他產業發展並不明顯之類型。就乘數分析結果方面，住宿及懦撥~、倉儲及旅運服務業和其他服務業之能源乘數或污染乘數值皆高於其餘產業，顯示這些產業是為典型高耗能且高污染之產業。 OECD脫鉤指標分析顯示，在服務業部門方面，能源消費量與GDP、CO2排放量與GDP之狀態方面，近年來則為相對脫鉤狀態，亦呈現良好狀態下。Tapio脫鉤指標方面，能源消費量與GDP、CO2排放量與GDP之狀態方面，是呈現弱脫鉤狀態，以標準偏差圓方面來看，整體數值大多位於標準偏差圓外，應優先需改善地方，但也是不容忽視其影響。綜合上述，我國服務業部門之能源消費及CO2排放量目前仍有急遽上升之趨勢，所以應該積極推動CO2減量措施及實行方法。本研究建議應實行節約能源並提升能源效率的效果，是作為未來服務業部門邁向永續發展與CO2減量之參考方針。 In this study, the main purpose was to discussion of energy consumption, CO2 emissions from analysis of the impact of changes of services sectors in Taiwan. At first, use divisia index method, input-output analysis and multiplier analysis were integrated to analyze the inter-industry linkage, energy consumption and CO2 emission characteristics. Final, the OECD and Tapio decoupling indicator analysis were used to find the interrelationships among GDP, energy consumption and CO2 emission in services sectors. Results of this study have shown that electricity was the major energy consumption for services sectors in Taiwan. The aspect of the CO2 emission trends, that more than 87% of electricity emissions of fuel category. The decomposition analysis demonstrated that GDP and emission factor were most important factors for CO2 emission increase in the services sector. On the other hand, economic growth and structure share were primary factors for CO2 emission increase in commercial sector, while the energy intensity was the only factor for the decrease. Results of input-output analysis indicated that most industries have higher values of forward linkage effects in Taiwan. For the development of other industries does not affect significantly. The multiplier analysis shown that the energy or pollution multipliers are lower than services sectors of the hotels and restaurants, storage and warehousing, transport services, and other services. Means these industries are high-energy consumption and high-pollutant emission industry. Results of OECD decoupling indicator analysis revealed that for services sector, relative decoupling effect occurred in energy consumption / GDP and CO2 emission / GDP. It means good state for services sector in recent years. Results of Tapio decoupling indicator analysis revealed that for services sector, weak decoupling effect occurred in Energy consumption / GDP and CO2 emission / GDP. Regarding of standard deviation of round, most of numerical analysis is located outside that. It was priority to improve the part but that was not ignored to impact that. As a result, energy consumption and CO2 emissions has fast to increase of services sectors in Taiwan. They should actively promote the implementation measures and methods of CO2 reduction. This research should execute implemented energy conservation and increased energy efficiency. The principle will be orientation sustainable development and CO2 reductions of services sector in the future.
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