全球石油價格最近連番上漲，世界各國與各類使用原油為原料的大企業，為了穩定油源的供應，均積極的去尋找具投資利益的油氣礦區，對於評估已開發的礦區而言，一般能取得的資訊相當的有限，可能只有油氣的生產資料，在這種狀況下，如模擬分析或質量平衡計算是無法使用的，只能以生產衰減曲線分析來進行礦區的未來產率與蘊藏量的估算。本研究的目的是要針對已開發油氣礦區的生產歷史資料（時間V.S產率的資料），利用單形搜尋法輔助典型曲線進行全自動化的最佳擬合，並利用無因次時間的觀念，區分出生產資料中尚未具有特定變化的暫態資料與已具有特定變化態勢的衰減資料，以確保只有具有特定衰減趨勢的生產資料被應用於生產衰減預測之中，以強化所得到生產趨勢的正確性，提昇產率預測與蘊藏量估算的準確度。 The price of petroleum has gone up to a new peak recently. Many countries and lots of enterprises used crude oil as raw materials were energetic to look for the oil/gas field in order to stabilize the supply of the oil source. For a developed field, the public information was very limited. The only information available might be the production data of field. In thus situation, the simulation studies or material-balance calculations can not be used. The only validated method is the decline trend analysis. The purpose of this study is to establish a full- automatic optimization process for type curves matching and obtain the suitable data for using in production decline prediction. In the matching process, simplex search is used to find out the needed parameters by the concept of dimensionless time. After proposed process, the data with specific decline trend was distinguished from the original production data and the parameters of decline curve were determined. The forecast of future production therefore can be got from production decline curve analysis.
