本研究以投入產出結構因素分析方法探討1981~86年、1986~91年、1991~96年間台灣地區產業的CO2排放量變動趨勢及其組成效果，藉以研判產業發展過程中CO2排放的特性及關鍵因素，作為未來因應溫室效應之產業CO2削減策略的參考。本研究將造成CO2排放量變動的因素歸納有九項，包括產業能源直接係數、CO2排放係數、能源排放替代、中間投入國產率變化、中間投入結構變化、國內最終需求成長、國內最終需求結構變動、出口成長、出口結構變動。研究結果顯示，在1981~ 86年間，CO2排放增量為15,312公噸，其中以出口成長及國內最終需求為最主要增量因素，最終需求結構變動則呈現減量效果，煤品的排放量顯著增加。1986~91年間，CO2排放增量為34,874公噸，相較前五年有顯著增加趨勢，其中，出口成長為最主要增量因素，CO2排放係數因素則因燃煤發電量增加亦有增量效果，中間投入國產率的下降則為減量主要來源；1991~96年間，CO2排放增量為39,745公噸，國內最終需求及出口成長皆為增量主要因素，而能源直接係數及產業中間投入結構兩項因素皆有助於CO2減量，顯示此期間產業節約能源及產業結構改善皆有相當的成效。 This study employs input-output (I-O) structural decomposition analysis to examine trends and effects of industrial CO2 emission in Taiwan during 1981-1986, 1986-1991 and 1991-1996. Changes of CO2 emission can be decomposed into nine factors: (1) the industrial energy coefficient, (2) the CO2 emission factor, (3) interfuel substitution, (4) the rate of domestic production to intermediate input, (5)the structural change of intermediate input, (6) the level of domestic final demand, (7) the change of domestic final demand, (8) the level of exports and (9) the structural change of exports. Among these nine factors are the industrial energy coefficient and CO2 emission factor, both of which are important for the determination of the highway, steel and iron, cement, and petrochemical industries as the major sources of increased CO2 emission in recent years. Analysis of these major factors can provide information regarding the characteristics of CO2 emission in the industrial development process, and can serve as a valuable reference for structuring future CO2 reduction plans in Taiwan.
