| 摘要: | 本研究以投入產出及模糊目標規劃方法建構系統模型，包括產業經濟、能源及CO2排放目標函數的設定及限制式的建立，據以評析國內產業未來（2010年）產業經濟、能源及CO2排放情景，並模擬產業結構調整對CO2削減的貢獻量。本研究顯示至2010年基本方案之年平均經濟成長率為3.04% ，能源消費結構以油品為最大宗，但與1990年相較，成長幅度最大者為天然氣及電力，其中由於電力業在2010年燃煤機組比例偏高，使CO2排放係數惡化，顯示電力業為CO2減量的重要探討對象。其次，產業模擬結果顯示，其他服務業、商品買賣業、電機業、營造工程及倉儲通信業等產業為支持國內經濟的重要產業，而倉儲通信、石化原料、其他服務、化學製品、電機業及機械業則可能為國家經濟發展的重點產業，而路上運輸及鋼鐵業的能源及CO2配比皆超過總量的10%，顯示這兩項產業為未來台灣地區因應氣候變化公約時重要的對象。本研究所擬定的產業結構調整方案中，10%優化方案的年平均經濟成長率為3.34%，CO2排放量相較基本方案下降1.1%；20%優化方案的GDP成長率為3.48％，CO2排放下降約2.44%；30%優化方案的GDP年平均成長率則高達3.64% ，CO2排放量下降3.7%。本研究結果顯示產業調整的過程確實有利於國內生產毛額的成長，並可有效降低能源消費量及CO2排放量，故產業升級及結構的調整為重要的CO2減量手段。
To establish a model for investigating and predicting the interrelationships between industrial economic, energy consumption and CO2 emission which was resulted form industrial structure adjustment and CO2 reduction in Taiwan, the scheme based on the input-output concept and fuzzy goal programming was employed to explore the feasible strategies in CO2 reduction in the present study. If it consumed that the annual average economic growth rate maintained 3.04% during 2002-2010, the results from economic simulations revealed that public services & others, commercials, electric machinery, construction, and storage & communication were the most important industrials supporting the economic development of Taiwan. The most substantial industrials to be developed during 2002-2010 would be storage & communication, petro-chemical materials, public services & others, chemical products, electric machinery, and machinery. The energy consumption and CO2 emission from the industrial of highway transportation and iron & steel exceeded 10%. According the Kyoto Protocol, it would be inevitable to diminish the CO2 emission from these industrials. From the simulation results, it also indicated that the oil would be the largest portion in the energy consumption structure. When compared to the situations in 1990, the growth rate of natural gas and power generation were increased with higher tendency among the structure. However, due to the fast increase of the latter in 2010, the emission of CO2 would also grow up. It turned to an important issue to discuss in CO2 reduction. From the optimization alternatives of industrial adjustments by 10%, 20%, and 30%, proposed by the present study, the annual average economic growth rate were 3.34%, 3.48%, and 3.64% while the CO2 reduction became 1.1%, 2.44%, and 3.7%, respectively. It implied that the industrial adjustment would be a positive strategy in the industrial upgrade and CO2 reduction. |
