本研究依據能委會及台電公司預測台灣地區電力供需情勢，探討2010年前核一廠提前除役及核四廠不運轉，發電量由目標年燃氣複循環機組增加容量因素作為因應措施，並進一步以投入產出模糊目標規劃模型，模擬台灣地區於2010年時，此因應方案對產業經濟、能源使用與二氧化碳的衝擊分析，期裨益未來相關單位為因應推動非核家園行動方案，統籌規劃電力事業供需及產業發展的參考。本研究結果顯示，電力部門之排放量由2001年的89,728千公噸增加至2010年的104,698千公噸（不含汽電廠排放），而整體火力電廠之CO2排放係數則因這段期間低碳能源大量使用，由0.841公斤／度下降至0.787公斤／度，顯示這期間低碳能源使用使電力能源清潔度增加。但若於2010年將國內燃氣機組容量因素由原先的0.392增加至0.631，即可弭補因核一除役及核四不運轉時之缺電量。而經過模式模擬，本案之年平均經濟成長率為2.36%，較原方案2.57%為低，原因為電價上揚將對產業經濟產生衝擊，但影響不大。由於電力已成為國內產業未來能源消費的主流，就溫升減量觀點，將與產業發展存有甚高的互動影響關係，故未來台灣邁向非核家園的同時，應積極提高無碳能源（再生能源）及高效率能源發電（汽電共生、複循環機組）的配比，如此可有效減緩產業發展過程中對CO2減量目標的衝擊。 Due to the policy of non-nuclear nation, Taiwan has to deal with the challenge of the close of first and fourth nuclear power plant. The alternatives will inevitably increase the capacity of fossil fuel power plant. In the present study, the I-O fuzzy goal programming model was employed to analyze the effects on the industrial economics, energy consumption, and CO2 emission in 2010. The results can be regarded as an important reference for the long-term planning of power and industrial development. According the simulation results, it indicated that CO2 emission would increase from 89,728 kt in 2001 to 104,698 kt in 2010. However, the emission factor decreased from 0.841 kg/deg to 0.787 kg/deg due to the mass usage of low carbon content energy. To complement the power lack resulted from the shutdown of first and fourth nuclear power plant, the capacity factors of gas turbine must be increased from 0.392 to 0.631. In the meantime, the power cost would be raised and the annual average economic growth rate became 2.36% instead of the original proposal, 2.57%. It was obvious that there exited a close connection between industrial development and power supply. To accomplish the dream of non-nuclear homeland, it suggested promoting the power ratio from regeneration resources and high efficient power plant. This strategy also lowered the impact on the reduction goal in CO2 emission during the process of industrial development.
