| 摘要: | 近年來，在經濟快速成長及國民所得增加下，為求舒緩壓力並調節身心，國人漸漸傾向於從事自然生態環境的戶外活動，特別是溫泉泡湯之消費，因為它既可達到普通旅遊的目的，同時又具有減輕壓力及醫療健身之效果。而為了避免過多的遊客量對溫泉區產生破壞，建立一適當之生態承載量評估模式，對於瞭解溫泉水是否超限使用及如何維持遊憩品質，以達到永續經營的目的則為一項極重要的課題。本研究以關子嶺為例，探討此區之遊客量成長趨勢及生態承載量。首先利用時間序列ARIMA模式(ARIMA; Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model)來推估關子嶺未來之遊客成長量，再擬合此區之生態承載量(Ecological Capacity)來推估未來之最適遊客人數。研究結果顯示，關子嶺之未來遊客量呈現正成長的趨勢，推估到2011年的遊客量將到達27萬人次，而此區之發展限制因素主要是在可用水量的部份，以此推估關子嶺之最適生態承載量約為每日5,200-10,400人次，將可維持關子嶺之遊憩品質及生態環境的保護。
The importance of the roles that recreation and entertainment play in our life couldn’t be emphasized too much in this century. People need to take a rest and relax by participating in outdoor activities when they feel tried or under too much pressure. Most popular spots now are the hot spring areas. After taking a hot spring SPA, people feel recovered and spirited. However, too many visitors could do serious harm to the precious natural resources. Which means, not only how to evaluate if the hot spring water has been over-used, but the issue about how to maintain the touring quality in hot spring area are also important matters as worth studying. In this paper, we will take Guanzihling Hot Spring Area the example, particularly discussing the tendency on the variety of the number of the tourists and the ecological capacity in this area. We are going to use “ARIMA”, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model, to predict the number of future tourists in this area. In combination with the analysis of the ecological capacity, we can find out the most proper number of future tourists in Guanzihling Area.It turns out that the number of the tourists in Guanzihling Hot Spring Area tends to be increasing. The predicted number of the tourists amounts to 270,000 in the year 2011. The main reason that limited the development of this area lies in the available quantity of spring water. The most proper capacity in Guanzihling Area is predicted about 5,200-10,400 people per day. In other words, if we keep the number of tourists 5,200-10,400 per day, then we could probably maintain the touring quality and keep the balance of the ecological environment at the same time in Guanzihling Hot Spring Area. |
