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    標題: 觀光休閒農場能資源耗用分析及預測之研究
    Research on the Analysis and Prediction of Resources Consumption for Resort Parks
    作者: 王仁俊
    何東波
    郭柏巖
    林子平
    貢獻者: 觀光事業管理系
    關鍵字: 休閒農場
    綠色觀光
    能資源耗用
    日期: 2011
    上傳時間: 2012-01-03 13:57:54 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 觀光休閒農場能資源耗用分析及預測之研究台灣的國民國內旅遊(國旅)需求長期係屬看漲之趨勢,整體國旅之觀光客人數,近五年之平均成長率為7.58%,明顯高於台灣同期之人均實質GDP 成長率2.30%,國旅平均每年成長1089 萬餘人次,而國旅觀光總支出佔全國觀光總支出之最多數(49.5%),佔總GDP 約2.3~2.6%。而觀光局近年來之年度施政重點,亦每年均將提升國旅品質納為重點方針,並大力倡導深度旅遊,加上來台觀光客已於2010 年大幅刷新歷史記錄,這是台灣前所未有的觀光榮景,在公部門大力推動提升遊憩區品質、推動民間參與投資的同時,叢邇島國台灣能否支應此能資源開支?投資業者能否預測能資源耗用?綠色觀光逐漸在國際迴響,觀光業該消耗多少的能資源係屬合理?觀光業能資源消耗現況為何?觀光業該如何預測其能資源消耗?觀光業的節約能資源政策應為何?其節約效益為何?台灣過去缺乏類似之基礎研究,相信優質的遊憩環境品質方為業主省錢、政府省力、全民享環保的三贏局面。本 研 究 立 基 於 台 灣 觀 光 遊 樂 區能資源耗用分析之研究( NSC 98-2622-E-041-012-CC3)、觀光旅館耗用能資源分析及預測之研究(NSC 99-2221-E-041-018)等二個前置研究計畫皆為觀光業能資源調查及統計之基礎,應能賡續發展研究能量,期建立台灣觀光遊樂區、觀光旅館及休閒農場耗用能資源全貌,預期本計畫能提供完整的能資源耗用資料庫、能提供具公信且多樣組合的能資源耗用預測模型、能提供能資源節約方案與效益評估,並提供最佳之節約能資源操作模式,期建立台灣觀光休閒業之能資源耗用基礎資料,併期能邁入綠色觀光之途,各年期研究計畫如下:第一年研究子題:台灣觀光遊樂區能資源耗用分析之研究(已結案,計畫編號:NSC 98-2622-E-041-012-CC3)本期研究計畫已獲至成果如下: 1. 建立台灣觀光遊樂區能資源耗用統計資料。 2. 建立台灣森林遊樂區能資源耗用統計資料。 3. 提供台灣觀光遊樂區能資源耗用預測模型。 4. 提供台灣森林遊樂區能資源耗用預測模型。 5. 提供台灣觀光遊樂區及森林遊樂區之節能對策。第二年研究子題:觀光旅館耗用能資源分析及預測之研究(執行中,計畫編號:NSC 99-2221-E-041-018) 1. 彙整台灣旅館之各項基礎資料庫(已完成)。 2. 建立台灣旅館用電統計之基礎資料(已完成)。 3. 建立台灣旅館用水(含自來水、地下水、山泉水)統計之基礎資料(進行中)。 4. 建立台灣旅館燃油、瓦斯耗用及垃圾量之基礎資料(進行中)。 5. 建立旅館用電預測模型、用水、燃油瓦斯耗用預測、垃圾量預測等評估模型(進行中)。 6. 建立旅館整體能資源耗用預測及能資源預算支出預測模型(進行中)。第三年研究子題:台灣觀光休閒農場能資源耗用分析之研究(本次計劃申請) 1. 調查及彙整台灣觀光休閒農場之各項基礎資料庫(現正進行中)。 2. 建立台灣觀光休閒農場用電統計之基礎資料(現正進行中)。 3. 推求觀光休閒農場用電與農場營運之關係,尋求用電簡易評估方式。 4. 建立台灣觀光休閒農場用水(含自來水、地下水、山泉水)統計之基礎資料(現正進行中)。 5. 建立台灣觀光休閒農場燃油、瓦斯耗用及垃圾量之基礎資料(現正進行中)。 6. 彙整台灣觀光休閒農場能資源耗用資料庫。第四年研究子題:台灣觀光休閒農場耗用能資源基準研擬及節約對策研議(本次計劃申請) 1. 建立觀光休閒農場用電預測模型。 2. 建立觀光休閒農場用水評估模型 3. 建立觀光休閒農場燃油瓦斯耗用預測、垃圾量預測等之評估模型。 4. 建立觀光休閒農場整體能資源耗用預測及能資源預算支出預測模型。 5. 建議觀光休閒農場能資源耗用分級基準。 6. 彙整台灣觀光休閒農場能資源節約方案及效益評估。預期本計畫能提供台灣觀光休閒農場最完整的能資源耗用資料庫、能提供最具公信且最多樣組合的能資源預測模型、能提供觀光休閒農場能資源節約最佳方案與效益評估。
    Research on the Analysis and Prediction of Resources Consumption for Resort Parks In recent years, the travel demands in Taiwan are increasing. The total number of domestic tourists has grown by 7.58% in recent 5 years, which is obviously higher than that of GDP by 2.30%. The averagely increasing number of tourists is 10.89 million annually. The domestic travel expenses account for 49.5%--the highest of whole national travel expenses, about 2.3~2.6 % of GDP. Tourism Bureau takes promoting the traveling quality as the annual administrative priorities. The income tourists had been over 5 million in 2010, which surprised and amazed Taiwan. While the public department is enhancing the quality of recreation area and promoting personal investment, can such a small island as Taiwan bear enormous resources consumption? Can investors predict resources consumption? How much resources consumption is reasonable? What is the current situation of resources consumption? How can resort parks predict resources consumption? What is the energy conservation policy of resort parks and its efficiency? The related research is not available now. It is believed that high quality of sustainable tourism would save money for its investors, save power for the government and preserve resources. Based on 2 former related researches, Research on the Analysis and Prediction of Res ources Consumption for Hotel Buildings (NSC 99-2221-E-041-018) and Theme Recreation Park(NSC 98-2622-E-041-012-CC3), the research is intended to build a database of resources consumption of resort parks in Taiwan and to sort out good models. Some comparison will be established in order to propose some suggestion. It is hoped that the research can provide the most profound database of resources consumption, the most reliable and multiple anticipation models, and the most efficient resources consumption policy and economic analysis. 1st year: Research on the Analysis and Prediction of Resources Consumption for Theme Recreation Park. (finished,project number:NSC98-2622-E-041-012-CC3) 1. To establish a resources consumption database of theme recreation park in Taiwan. 2. To establish a resources consumption database of forest recreation park in Taiwan. 3. To suggest simplified methods to predict resources consumption of theme recreation park in Taiwan. 4. To suggest simplified methods to predict resources consumption of forest recreation park in Taiwan. 5. To provide resources conservation strategy of theme recreation park and forest recreation park in Taiwan. 2nd year: Analysis and Prediction of Resources Consumption for Hotel Buildings. (project number:NSC 99-2221-E-041-018) ( under carrying out) 1. To establish a database of hotel designing in Taiwan, including floor areas, location, purpose, present condition, stories, construction, opening ratio. (finished) 2. To establish a database of hotel energy consumption. (finished) 3. To establish a database of water consumption, including tap water and underground water, which is under way. 4. To establish a hotel building’s database of fuel oil, which is under way. 5. To establish regression models of resources consumption prediction for hotel buildings. 6. To establish prediction models of resources consumption budgets for hotel buildings. 3rd year: Research on the Analysis and Prediction of Resources Consumption for Resort Parks 1. To investigate and categorize the foundation databases of resort parks in Taiwan. 2. To establish the electricity consumption data of resort parks in Taiwan. 3. To suggest simplified methods to predict electricity consumption of resort parks in Taiwan. 4. To establish the tap water, groundwater and spring water consumption data of resort parks in Taiwan. 5. To establish the fuel oil and gas consumption data of resort parks in Taiwan. 6. To establish the resources consumption database of resort parks in Taiwan. 4rd year: Research on the Analysis and Prediction of Resources Consumption for Resort Parks 1. To establish electricity consumption prediction models of resort parks. 2. To establish water consumption prediction models of resort parks. 3. To establish fuel and gas water consumption prediction models of resort parks. 4. To establish prediction models of resources consumption budgets for resort parks in Taiwan. 5. To provide suggestion for grading standards of resources consumption for resort parks in Taiwan. 6. To provide resources conservation strategy for resort parks in Taiwan.
    關聯: 計畫編號:100-2221-E-041-017
    計畫年度:100;起迄日期:2011-08-01~2012-07-31
    核定金額:511,000元
    顯示於類別:[觀光事業管理系(含溫泉所)] 科技部計畫

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