|摘要: ||本研究以問卷方式對墾丁南灣的遊客進行調查，調查結果經由T檢定及單因子變異數分析(One-way ANOVA)分析遊客的人口統計變量對總旅遊成本是否存在顯著差異，並應用「非市場估價法」之「旅遊成本法」(Travel Cost Method, TCM) 來建立墾丁南灣遊憩需求實證模型，其中以計數模型中的TPOIS、TNB以及On-Site Poisson模型來修正現場樣本的截斷與內生分層偏誤，除此之外還應用「條件評估法」(Contingent Valuation Method，CVM) 透過假設性問題並以「願意支付價格(Willingness-To-Pay，簡稱WTP)」的概念，來估算墾丁南灣的海灘遊憩效益。
研究結果顯示On-Site Poisson模型結果較好，較適合用來評估墾丁南灣的遊憩效益。如以On-Site Poisson模型估算墾丁南灣的遊憩彈性，其價格彈性為-0.2385、所得彈性為0.1193。至於TPOIS模型估計的消費者剩餘為32,154(元/年/人)，而TNB模型估計的消費者剩餘為32,258 (元/年/人)，另外On-Site Poisson模型估計的消費者剩餘則為27,397 (元/年/人)。三個模型中，TNB模型的消費者剩餘最高，其次是TPOIS模型，On-Site Poisson模型最低。至於在同一需求函數之估計模型下，三種遊憩效益(CS、CV、EV)之結果則極為接近，其原因為本研究實證資料所得對旅遊需求並無顯著影響，即所得效果不明顯，因此CS、CV及EV無顯著差異。在整體經濟效益的分析上，因旅遊成本法所求出的CS、CV及EV無顯著差異，故本研究則以三個模型所估計出的CS來評估墾丁南灣的整體遊憩經濟效益，實證結果得到TPOIS模型約為82億2千萬元/年，TNB模型約為82億5千萬元/年，On-Site Poisson模型則約為70億元/年，由此可知，墾丁南灣不但可以提供國人休閒遊憩也為當地帶來龐大的經濟效益。
The questionnaires for analysis were collected by sampling the visitors in Kenting Nanwann beach. The data of questionnaires investigation was analyzed using methodology of independent means T-test and one-way ANOVA. The above methodology was applied to test the differences in total travel cost according to visitor’s identity. The recreation benefit of Kenting Nanwann beach was also estimated by travel cost method. The trip demand function was constructed by different count data models, namely, Truncated Poisson (TPOIS), Truncated Negative Binomial (TNB) and On-Site Poisson.
This study has found that the most appropriate model was the On-Site Poisson to estimate recreation benefit of Kenting Nanwann beach. The price elasticity of demand and income elasticity of demand were -0.2385 and 0.1193. The average consumer surplus (CS) under TPOIS model, TNB model, and On-Site Poisson model were NT$ 32154, 32258, 27397, respectively. The results of this research indicated that CS under TNB model was the highest, and under On-Site Poisson model was the lowest. The recreation benefits estimated by the different indices (CS, CV, and EV) in the same count data model were not significantly different. The reason was that the effect of income was not significant in the trip demand function. Because the different indices (CS, CV, and EV) in the same count data model were not significantly different, the CS was applied to the estimating of the recreation economic benefits. The recreation economic benefits were NT$ 8.22 billion calculated from TPOIS model, NT$ 8.25 billion calculated from TNB model, and NT$ 7.0 billion calculated from On-Site Poisson model.
The values of willingness to pay of Kenting Nanwann beach were also calculated as follows: option value was NT$ 82.2 per-year per-person, existence value was NT$ 95.8 per-year per-person, and bequest value was NT$ 101.4 per-year per-person. The total recreation economic benefits were NT$ 71 million by contingent valuation method.