| 摘要: | 在經濟蓬勃發展生活物質不虞匱乏的二十一世紀，釵h人開始重視心靈資源的攝取，於是乎一些能夠調節身、心、靈紓緩壓力的生態之旅也應運而生。不若從前以旅遊地點之多寡取勝，現在則是以能夠在特定地點停留做深度旅遊為主，本研究之綜合休閒農場即為符合上述條件之地點。尤其近年來生態環境之保護與認知普遍被重視，但旅遊地點總有承載量超限使用的問題，過量的人、車集中在某一地點，不但無法有良好之休憩品質，甚而會破壞該遊憩區的生態。
本研究即以新光兆豐休閒農場為例，探討此區之遊客量成長趨勢及休憩承載量。先以季節自迴歸整合移動平均模式SARIMA(Seasonal Auto -Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model)模式來推估新光兆豐休閒農場未來遊客量之成長趨勢，再擬合此區之休憩承載量來推估未來最適遊客量，並提出相關建議。
研究結果顯示，兆豐休閒農場之未來遊客量呈負成長趨勢，到2010年將減至每年231,353人次。另推估新光兆豐休閒農場之每日同時最大活動空間範圍在15,360至102,400人之間，遊客交通承載量方面最大每小時可承載137至729人，約每日可承載24,65至35,010人，住宿承載量方面每日最大可容納460至516人，由於推估此區未來遊客量呈現負成長，因此設法提高遊客旅遊動機及重遊意願為此區目前發展重點。另從此區永續發展的觀點來看，此區之每日最適遊客承載量為15,360-102,400人次。
In the twenty-first century, the shortage of living material is away from the modern life. Many people are looking for the spiritual needs. In this circumstance, ecological trip that can set stressful body and mind free and release the pressure become more and more popular. Instead of visiting tourist spots as much as possible, new style is to stay in a particular place to contact residents and understand their cultural there. The ranch and resort we studied is the perfect place for the ecological trip. The protection of environment has been well known and took account of it. However, the carrying capacity of the resort is still a big issue. The carrying capacity is a concept that contains environmental carrying capacity, recreational carrying capacity, social carrying capacity, managerial carrying capacity, and so on. For the resort, the true meaning of carrying capacity is to make sure the protection of the natural environment and the usage of tourism can coexist. The resort offers many recreational activities for the tourist and also can maintain the natural of the place. The research uses Shin Kong Chao Feng Ranch & Resort as a model to study the relationship between carrying capacity and the number of tourist. We use SARIMA (Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model) to evaluate the growing number of visitor in the following years. The appropriate amount of people can be estimated by comparing visitor with carrying capacity of the resort.
The predicted number of the tourists amounts to 231,353 in the year 2010. The report shows Shin Kong Chao Feng Ranch & Resort can load from 7,680 to 25,600 visitors at the same hour. If we assume 10 hour per daylight’s activities, it can has 15,360-102,400 person each day. The vision of the resort is to build an ecotourism. |
