|摘要: ||台灣地區近年來國人隨著工商服務業的快速發展、所得及休閒機會增加，使得遊憩人數正逐年大幅成長，因此民眾利用周休二日及假日從事國內外觀光遊旅活動，已成為日常生活中常態性之行為，尤其是溫泉泡湯，因為它既可達到遊憩旅遊目的，又可有紓解工作及生活壓力並達到醫療健身之效果。而為了避免過多的遊客量對溫泉區產生破壞，建立一適當之生態承載量評估模式，對於瞭解溫泉水是否超限使用及如何維持溫泉區之遊憩品質以達到永續經營之目標，實為重要的課題。本研究以高雄縣寶來、不老溫泉區為例，探討該區之遊客量成長趨勢及生態承載量。首先利用時問序列ARIMA模式(ARIMA；Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model)來推估寶來、不老未來之遊客成長量，再配合此區之生態承載量(Ecological Capacity)來推估未來之最適遊客人數。研究結果顯示，寶來、不老溫泉之未來遊客量呈現正成長的趨勢，推估到2013 年的遊客量將到達94 萬人次，而此區之發展限制因素主要是在可用溫泉水量的部份，並以此推估寶來、不老溫泉區之最佳生態承載量約為每日5,020-10,040人次，將可維持溫泉區之遊憩品質及生態環境的維護。|
The importance of the roles that recreation and entertainment play in our life couldn`t be emphasized too much in this century. People need to take a rest and relax by participating in outdoor activities when they feel tried or under too much pressure. Most popular spots now are the hot spring areas. After taking a hot spring SPA, people feel recovered and spirited. However , too many visitors could do serious harm to the precious natural resources. Which means, not only how to evaluate if the hot spring water has been over-used, but the issue about how to maintain the touring quality in hot spring area are also important matters as worth studying. In this paper, we will take A case of the Environmental Sensitive Area of Baolai and Bulao Hot Spring Area in Kaohsiung County, particularly discussing the tendency on the variety of the number of the tourists and the ecological carrying capacity in this area. We are going to use “ ARIMA”, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model, to predict the number of future tourists in this area. In combination with the analysis of the ecological carrying capacity, we can find out the most proper number of future tourists in Baolai and Bulao Area. It turns out that the number of the tourists in Baolai and Bulao Hot Spring Area tends to be increasing. The predicted number of the tourists amounts to 940,000 in the year 2013. The main reason that 1imited the deve1opment of the, area lies in the available quantity of spring water. The most proper capacity in Baolai and Bulao Area is predicted about 5,020-10,040 people per day. In other words , if we keep the number of tourists 5,020-10,040 per day , then we could probably maintain the touring quality and keep the balance of the ecological environment at the same time in Baolai and Bulao Hot Spring Area .